Right-wing parties in the Balkans feel encouraged by the results of the European Parliament elections where the right-wing parties won a larger number of votes than in the previous elections, but the political dynamics in the region is not the same as the one in the EU, so it cannot be expected that the situation in Europe will be mirrored in the Balkans. That is what the editor of the portal “European Western Balkans” and the researcher in the Centre for Contemporary Politics Aleksandar Ivković says for Eurokaz.
In the recent elections for the European Parliament, the conservative European People’s Party (EPP) won the largest number of seats, while the parties of the far right won a significantly higher number of the seats than they had before.
The results of the elections for 720 new members of the European Parliament have shown that the parties in two right-wing groups – European Conservatives and the Reformists and Identity and Democracy Group – have increased their number of MEPs by 13, from 118 in the previous European Parliament to 131 in the new one.
The success of the right-wing block is, however, somewhat greater if we take into account that some of the largest right-wing parties in Europe, like Alternative for Germany, are out of these groups and that the number of MEPs that they have is not within the 131.
The greatest losers of the elections are the French President Emmanuel Macron and the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Macron’s party Renaissance won 15% of votes, while Marine Le Pen’s National Rally won 32%, which led the French Head of State to call for early parliamentary elections in his country. In Germany, in spite of numerous scandals, including the hiding of Nazism, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) won a larger percentage of the national votes (16%) than any of the three parties in the Scholz’s coalition. Therefore, he is faced with the calls to call for early national elections, like Macron did.
Ivković, however, thinks that the topics that are discussed in the EU have not yet arrived to the Balkans, and that therefore the results of European elections will not have any direct impact on the circumstances in our region.
-Right-wing parties in the Balkans most probably feel encouraged by the results of the elections for the European Parliament. However, the primary reason for that is their belief that these elections announced that in some of the important EU countries – like France and Germany – the structures in power would change, and that the new authorities would be in stronger agreement about foreign politics and geopolitics with “our” right-wingers. That has not yet happened, and we will have to wait to see if such expectations are justified – says Ivković for our magazine.
It is believed, however, that the vote for the right-wing parties in the elections for the EP that created the basis for their good results, was primarily the vote against national elites.
-In the Balkans, many right-wing parties are in power, i.e. they already make a part of the ruling elite, and therefore the political dynamics is not the same and it cannot be expected that the situation from Europe will be “mirrored” in the Balkans. In addition to this, some topics that are discussed in the European Union – migrations, environmental standards, etc. – have not yet arrived in the Balkans, so no direct parallel can be drawn in that either. It is correct though that the current situation in Europe is favourable for the growth of populism everywhere, including the Balkans, and that should be an alarm for anti-populist parties – says Mr Ivković.
As for the enlargement policy and the fear that, due to the strengthening of the right-wing parties, this policy might be pushed aside, Ivković believes that, in spite of the fact that in the previous European Parliament the topic of enlargement was low on the list of priorities when the Commission started working in 2019, it became much more prominent after the war in Ukraine started in 2022.
-In addition to the opening of negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova, we could see some progress in the Balkans too. This progress was certainly partly motivated by the new geopolitical situation. Last year European Union started a serious discussion about the internal reforms that must be implemented before new members join, which is also a good sign for the candidate countries. European Council that met at the end of June invited the European Commission to make an overview of the areas in which these reforms are needed by 2025 and put preparations for enlargement among the strategic priorities for the period 2024-2029. Based on this, since this Commission is the Commission of continuity, this can be interpreted as good news for enlargement advocates, because they want these processes to continue – says Ivković.
Soon after the elections, the key functions in the EU were distributed too. Thus, the new “trio fantastico” will include the former and current President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, but also two new faces – Antonio Costa – former Portuguese Prime Minister who will fill in the office of the President of the European Council and the former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, who will replace Josep Borrell in the position of the Head of the European diplomacy. Their appointments have shown that, in spite of the strong right-wingers, the key roles belong to the “European-oriented” politicians, whose political positions lie on what is the core of the EU – unity, alliance, but also strong support to Ukraine and enlargement.
Ivković thinks that it is precisely the new composition of the Commission and the Parliament that can ensure serious progress towards the enlargement in the following five years, for which, as he says, there is currently a political will.
-However, it is primarily a product of necessity – the Russian attack against Ukraine – and not of any enthusiasm for European Union enlargement. That is why it is difficult to forecast what will actually happen, because it depends on many factors, including inter alia how the war in Ukraine will end and who will be in power in the most important EU Member States by the end of this decade. I think that enlarging the block by 2030 (rather than by 2028) is realistic at this moment, at least for Montenegro, but that the will for that in the European Union lies on shaky grounds, so the things can still change – says Ivković.
That is why, as he concludes, it is difficult to make any forecasts, but it can be noted that the candidate countries should use this enlargement momentum that currently exists to implement reforms that the citizens will benefit from, regardless of when the membership will happen.
By Jovana ĐURIŠIĆ, Pobjeda